Report Highlight:
The El Nino weather phenomenon that led to dry conditions throughout 2015 and 2016 has ended. Indonesian weather agency BMKG reports that most production areas have received rain levels characteristic of “normal” conditions since October 2016. Long term analysis for 2017 (August and beyond) thus indicates continued normal conditions with the possibility of a weak El Nino. Post therefore expects that 2017/18 crude palm oil production will increase to 36.5 million metric tons. Post expects that Indonesian soybean imports will continue to grow in 2017/18, based on population growth, stable demand for soy-based food products, and the absence of import restrictions. Coconut production continues to decline, although coconut oil and copra production is sustained by diverting exportable unprocessed coconut for local processing. Peanut production is expected to decline in 2016/17 to 1.12 million metric tons and 2017/18 to 1.07 million metric tons as farmers continue to prefer corn and rice production.

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